Crisis Scenario Response Map
Model revenue shocks now and pre-commit the decisions each one triggers
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~days to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 97%
Start by deciding whether the immediate environment gives the business room to grow or forces it to protect cash and survive. Then replace a single forecast with several revenue scenarios, such as modest, serious, and severe declines. For each scenario, calculate what happens to the business and write down the decisions that would restore viability or fund growth. Reduce the next planning horizon to 30 or 90 days and select only two or three priorities. The mechanism creates operational certainty without pretending the external situation is predictable: when a measured threshold is reached, the team already knows which action follows. Leaders then communicate the real position, the chosen priorities, and each person's contribution instead of leaving the team to interpret uncertainty alone.
Origin
Extracted from The Foundr Podcast
Core principles
- 01Certainty comes from prepared actions, not confident forecasts
- 02A crisis can create either a growth opportunity or a survival threat
- 03Revenue scenarios must connect to specific decisions
- 04Near-term priorities matter more than an obsolete annual plan
How to run it
- 1
Classify the situation
Decide whether current conditions create an opportunity to grow or require protection and survival. Use current sales and customer evidence rather than optimism or panic.
Pro tip State the classification in one sentence so the team can use it consistently.
Watch out Do not assume every business faces the same kind of crisis impact.
- 2
Build revenue scenarios
Model several possible revenue levels, including material declines. Calculate the effect of each level on costs, cash, and the operating result.
Pro tip Use thresholds that would genuinely change a decision, not decorative forecast ranges.
Watch out A scenario is not a prediction; it is preparation.
- 3
Pre-commit decisions
For every scenario, list the cost, staffing, sales, marketing, or product decisions it would require. Make each response concrete enough to execute if the threshold arrives.
Pro tip Attach an owner to every action that can be delegated.
Watch out Do not leave difficult decisions as vague intentions.
- 4
Set near-term priorities
Replace the old annual plan with two or three priorities for the next 30 to 90 days. Choose the levers most likely to protect survival or seize the identified opportunity.
Pro tip Keep the list short enough to repeat in every team meeting.
Watch out Trying to preserve the entire pre-crisis plan disperses attention.
- 5
Communicate the path
Tell the team where the business stands, what the scenarios mean, and what each person can control. Be direct without presenting either false reassurance or unnecessary alarm.
Pro tip Translate company priorities into individual actions.
Watch out Silence leaves employees to fill the gap with outside fear and speculation.
In the wild
An illustrative firm earning $50,000 per month models revenue declines of 20%, 50%, and 70%. Its founder identifies the expenses and operating changes required at each threshold, then gives the team three immediate priorities: retain current clients, protect delivery, and monitor weekly cash. When revenue reaches one of the thresholds, the response is already documented rather than debated under pressure.
→ The founder gains a conditional survival plan and clearer team direction.
Common mistakes
Treating the scenario as a forecast
The exercise does not claim to predict the crisis. Its value is deciding what to do if a measurable condition occurs.
Keeping the old annual plan intact
A plan built for earlier conditions can obscure the few actions that matter in the next 30 to 90 days.
Hiding the real position
False reassurance and unexplained silence both prevent the team from aligning around the response.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for founders whose demand, revenue, or operating conditions could change sharply.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal as a substitute for professional financial, legal, or employment advice on specific actions.
From the transcript
“what are the different scenarios and impact and what does that look like so if our sales went back 10% or 30% or 50% what…”
“what are the key things we need to do over the next 90 days what 08 00 are the key sort of three things for…”
“certainty come from knowing what actions were gonna take”
From the episode
294: Responding to COVID-19: What Entrepreneurs Should Be Doing Right Now