Potential-Over-Revenue Signal Scorecard
Back the venture showing demand intensity, not merely today's highest revenue
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 90%
Paul Tran described choosing Manscaped over two higher-revenue businesses by looking beyond the topline. The team saw three reinforcing indicators: unusually excited comments on Facebook ads, 10,000-unit batches selling out in roughly two weeks despite subsequent stockouts, and strong enthusiasm among the people working on the brand. The scorecard turns that account into a repeatable concentration decision. Review customer language, test whether inventory sells through rapidly and repeatedly, and examine whether the team remains energized by the opportunity. No single signal is conclusive, but alignment across market response, purchasing behavior, and operator conviction can indicate greater upside than early revenue alone. Use the result to decide where to lean in, not as proof that scale is guaranteed.
Origin
Tran said Manscaped initially earned less revenue than two other businesses he started that year. Excited ad comments, repeated sell-outs, and team enthusiasm nevertheless gave him confidence to concentrate on it.
Core principles
- 01Early revenue and long-term potential are different signals
- 02Customer excitement can reveal demand before financial results do
- 03Repeated sell-outs are stronger evidence than a single sales spike
- 04Team conviction matters most when paired with market evidence
How to run it
- 1
Create a comparable test
Give each venture a bounded test that can produce observable customer response and purchasing behavior. Record the test conditions so a larger inventory order is not mistaken for stronger demand.
Pro tip Use the smallest batch that can still reveal meaningful sell-through behavior.
Watch out Do not rank ventures solely by gross revenue when their test sizes differ.
- 2
Read customer excitement
Review comments and reactions for evidence that the product has struck a chord. Look for specific enthusiasm rather than generic engagement.
Pro tip Save representative comments so the decision is based on customer language, not memory.
Watch out Attention without buying behavior is not enough.
- 3
Measure repeated sell-through
Track batch size, time to sell out, and whether demand resumes after stock returns. Repetition distinguishes a persistent signal from a one-off spike.
Pro tip Separate stockout downtime from periods when the product was actually available.
Watch out Stock scarcity alone does not prove a large market.
- 4
Check operator conviction
Ask whether the people closest to the work remain unusually excited about the venture. Treat this as supporting evidence alongside customer and sales signals.
Watch out Internal enthusiasm cannot substitute for external demand.
- 5
Concentrate on the combined winner
Compare the evidence across ventures and lean into the one with the strongest combined demand intensity and conviction. Revisit the choice as new evidence arrives.
Pro tip Write down which signals justified the concentration decision.
Watch out The scorecard indicates potential; it does not guarantee future scale.
In the wild
Manscaped had the lowest revenue of three companies Tran started in the same year. Its Facebook comments showed excitement, an initial 10,000-unit batch sold out in about two weeks, later batches repeated the pattern, and the team was energized by the brand. Tran treated the combined signals as evidence of higher potential and leaned into Manscaped.
→ The company concentrated on the venture whose early demand signals were stronger than its revenue ranking suggested.
A founder gives two new products equally sized launches. Product A earns more revenue through a higher price, while Product B sells out faster, attracts detailed positive comments, and immediately regains demand after restocking. The small team also develops more ideas for Product B. Using the scorecard, the founder treats Product B as the stronger concentration candidate while running another bounded test.
→ The next investment follows combined demand intensity rather than a misleading topline comparison.
Common mistakes
Choosing the current revenue leader
Early revenue can reflect price, batch size, or availability rather than durable potential. Compare the underlying signals before concentrating resources.
Treating enthusiasm as proof
Comments and team energy are useful only when purchasing behavior supports them. Require multiple reinforcing indicators.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for founders testing several young products or ventures with limited capital and uneven inventory.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal when ventures lack comparable customer feedback, sell-through data, or an active team.
From the transcript
“Manscape had the lowest revenue, but we felt it had the highest potential.”
“We bring in 10,000 units and it would sell out two weeks and then we're dark.”
“Everyone that was working on Manscape was just so so excited about it.”
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