Make Good Decisions Media-Buying Framework
Plan campaigns, define decision metrics, and let results govern spend
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 95%
Nick Shackelford describes confident media buying as the result of a decision system rather than instinct alone. Before campaigns launch, the buyer maps the audience, creative, budget, positioning, and metrics that will determine what happens next. Consistent naming preserves the connection between those inputs and the resulting performance. When data arrives, the buyer follows predefined stop, hold, or scale rules instead of extending an ad merely because they expect it to work. Unit economics constrain those choices, while the plan makes both successes and failures diagnosable. The output is faster, more consistent budget allocation and clearer communication with clients or creative partners.
Origin
Extracted from The Foundr Podcast, where Nick Shackelford calls the approach MGD, meaning make good decisions, while discussing lessons from managing large Facebook advertising budgets.
Core principles
- 01Confidence should come from preparation and numerical clarity
- 02Every campaign needs a traceable plan before launch
- 03Data should overrule attachment to a preferred creative
- 04Unit economics define which decisions are viable
How to run it
- 1
Establish the economics
Calculate the acquisition economics and performance thresholds the business can support. These numbers bound every later media decision.
Pro tip Write the acceptable acquisition cost beside the campaign objective.
Watch out Do not spend when you cannot state how much a customer is worth or what you can afford to acquire one.
- 2
Map campaign inputs
Record the intended audience, creative, positioning, budget, and objective before the campaign goes live.
Pro tip Use a naming convention that makes each input traceable in reporting.
- 3
Define decision triggers
Choose the metrics and thresholds that will cause you to stop, hold, or increase spend.
Watch out Vague success criteria invite subjective decisions after results arrive.
- 4
Execute with confidence
Launch the planned campaign and give the selected metrics enough room to provide a usable signal.
Pro tip Communicate the plan to everyone who depends on the buying decision.
- 5
Follow the evidence
Trace performance back to the planned inputs, then stop weak combinations and increase support for strong ones.
Pro tip Ask what the numbers support, not which ad the team likes most.
Watch out Do not keep a preferred creative running solely because you believe it should eventually work.
In the wild
A buyer launches two clearly named campaigns with the same offer and preset acquisition-cost threshold. One combination stays below the threshold while the other exceeds it after the agreed evaluation window. The buyer shifts budget to the first combination rather than extending the second because the concept is personally appealing.
→ Budget moves toward the combination supported by the campaign's predefined economics.
Common mistakes
Launching without a diagnostic plan
When audience, creative, budget, and objective are not mapped, the team cannot identify what produced the result.
Protecting a favourite ad
Personal conviction can keep weak creative running after the selected metrics say to stop it.
Ignoring unit economics
Campaign performance is not actionable until the business knows what acquisition result it can sustain.
Is it for you?
Best for
Teams managing paid-social budgets across multiple audiences and creative variants.
Not ideal for
Brands that have not yet established their unit economics or campaign objective.
From the transcript
“you have to plan your media you have to have the confidence to execute the media and stick with the data”
“i don't care what you think i want you to tell me what the numbers are going to tell you”
“biggest lessons on media buying is having a framework to make good decisions”
From the episode
363: Everything I've Learned Spending $30M on YouTube Ads